The Future of AI in 2024: A Critical Analysis

One year ago, I published an article about the AI narratives I was waiting to cover in 2023. Now, as 2024 approaches, it’s time to shift our focus and explore the trends that will shape the future of artificial intelligence. While OpenAI dominated the headlines in 2023 with its release of ChatGPT, Anthropic, a startup founded by former senior members of OpenAI, emerged as a formidable rival. With efforts to secure massive funding rounds, both OpenAI and Anthropic are gearing up for a fierce rivalry in the coming year.

Open source AI has gained significant momentum over the past year, challenging the dominance of proprietary models. Mistral AI, a French startup, made headlines with its release of the open-source LLM, Mixtral8x7B. This move demonstrated that the open source AI community is determined to catch up with proprietary models. In 2024, Mistral has plans to release an open source model on par with GPT-4, signaling the continued growth and influence of open source AI. Additionally, Meta, a key player in open source AI, is rumored to be preparing for the release of Llama 3, which is anticipated to be a game-changer in the first half of 2024.

As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, concerns are growing about the impact of AI on the political landscape. Experts predict that this election will be defined by AI, much like how social media played a significant role in previous elections. Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, interim dean at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, stated that “2024 will be an AI election,” highlighting the need for society to understand how AI is shaping politics. Machine learning researcher Nathan Lambert warned that generative AI, such as chatbots and deepfakes, could create havoc during the election. The intersection of AI and politics will undoubtedly shape the narrative and influence the regulation of AI moving forward.

In 2023, discussions around the data that trains AI models took center stage. However, in 2024, these discussions are expected to intensify. The heart of the matter lies in the datasets used to train these models, whether they are existing datasets or newly developed ones. Issues such as copyright, bias, deepfakes, disinformation, labor concerns, and the debate between open and closed models all revolve around the quality and integrity of training data. Recent events, such as LAION’s removal and OpenAI’s negotiations for new datasets, highlight the increasing importance of investigating AI training datasets. In the coming year, it will be crucial for journalists and researchers to delve deeper into these issues to provide a comprehensive understanding of AI development.

As AI continues to evolve, the influence of belief systems surrounding its risks and opportunities has grown. The effective altruism (EA) movement, with its intricate web of influence in AI policy circles, has gained prominence. Notably, the rise of effective accelerationism (e/acc) has sparked interest. This belief system, embraced by VC Marc Andreessen, offers a different perspective on the potential outcomes of AI. Despite the importance of AI pragmatism, it is crucial to continue covering these belief systems as their billionaire funders and founders hold significant sway over AI policy and investment decisions.

As we approach 2024, several key narratives will shape the future of AI. The rivalry between OpenAI and Anthropic, the rise of open source AI, the impact on the 2024 Presidential election, challenges surrounding training data, and the influence of belief systems all warrant careful analysis. It is essential for the AI community, journalists, and researchers to delve into these topics to foster a better understanding of the future direction and implications of artificial intelligence.

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