An Analysis of Apple’s Vision Pro Sales: Is Demand Waning?

Apple’s Vision Pro, a virtual reality headset, quickly sold out after preorders opened on Friday, sparking excitement among Apple fans and investors alike. However, top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities has raised concerns about the sustainability of this initial demand. In this article, we will delve into the details surrounding the Vision Pro sales and analyze whether the signs indicate a potential decline in demand.

Shortly after preorders opened, the shipping times for all models of the Vision Pro skyrocketed to five to seven weeks. According to Kuo, this rapid sell-out suggested a high demand for the product. Moreover, Kuo estimated that Apple managed to sell 160,000 to 180,000 units of the Vision Pro over the weekend, indicating a strong initial response from Apple enthusiasts.

However, it is worth noting that these extended shipping times remained unchanged even 48 hours after preorders opened. Kuo highlighted this as a “major concern” as it could imply that demand might quickly taper off after the initial rush of core fans and heavy users placing their orders.

Kuo drew a comparison between the Vision Pro and popular iPhone models. He pointed out that while iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after preorders open, indicating sustained demand, the Vision Pro did not experience the same pattern. This divergence suggests that the Vision Pro may not enjoy the same level of sustained growth in demand as iPhone models do.

Kuo expressed his belief that it should not be challenging for Apple to ship a total of 500,000 units of the Vision Pro this year. This estimates significantly surpasses his previous forecast of only 60,000 to 80,000 units for the product’s February 2 release. In contrast, analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted the shipment of 300,000 to 400,000 units this year, with the possibility of even more depending on initial sell-through feedback.

While Wall Street analysts do not expect the Vision Pro, priced at $3,499, to provide an immediate significant revenue boost for Apple, they are closely monitoring the initial reception of this new product category. The success or failure of the Vision Pro could indicate its potential market demand and future revenue streams for Apple. Kuo concurs that currently, the Vision Pro is still considered a niche product.

The initial sell-out of the Vision Pro virtual reality headset has generated excitement. However, the stability of demand remains uncertain. The lack of extended shipping times after preorders opened raises concerns about the sustainability of interest in the product. Nonetheless, with its ability to potentially ship half a million units, the Vision Pro continues to attract attention as market watchers closely monitor Apple’s progress in this new product category.


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